Is 2009 tracking a 1930 Great Depression scenario?
With more and more major economists predicting recovery sometime later this year, many have forgotten that downside risks remain. Berner, Roubini, Volcker, Krugman and Bernanke have all come out essentially saying they would not be surprised to see a ‘technical’ recovery at some point later this year. Robert Gordon has gone as far as to suggest we could be in recovery already – at least in the United States. I too have called for a Q4 or Q1 recovery. So, is it off to the races?
Hardly. I don’t have to convince many readers at Credit Writedowns or Naked Capitalism that there is a darker scenario which threatens recovery. Many of you see this according to preliminary results from a recent poll I conducted. Nevertheless, let me use this post as a reminder of that downside scenario with some commentary from economists. David Rosenberg is not the only major bearish economist that sees a very troubling economic outlook.
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