The Worst Is Over For The Economy
Paul Kasriel and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust have done exceptional work on the economy in recent years. They were early in calling the recession, and they have now been early in calling the recovery.
Paul and Asha’s latest reports argue that the worst is over and that we’ll see a weak recovery by the end of the year. The stimulus is kicking in and the housing, manufacturing, employment, and consumer-spending trends are beginning to improve (which in some cases means “decline less”). Bank lending is loosening, finally, and spreads are returning to normal. But the plunge in household net worth relative to debt will likely keep a lid on spending and growth for at least the next year.
You can download Paul and Asha’s reports here.
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