U.S. Recession May Soon End, Business Economists Say
The U.S. recession will probably end in the third quarter, a survey of business economists showed, even as rising joblessness indicates the recovery will be weaker than previously estimated.
The world’s largest economy will begin to expand next quarter, according to 74 percent of economists in a National Association for Business Economics survey. Compared with NABE’s February poll, growth will be slower and unemployment will be higher in the second half of this year and through 2010.
Government stimulus spending and Federal Reserve efforts to thaw credit markets are helping pull the economy out of the worst slump in half a century, the survey said. While housing is stabilizing, the economists predicted consumer spending will be restrained by a deteriorating labor market as job losses continue for the rest of the year.
“There are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing,” Chris Varvares, president of the group and of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis, said in a statement. Still, the recovery may be “considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines,” he said.
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